Uncertainty will remain the constant in LatAm in 2026, as ongoing risks regarding U.S. trade policy and global growth combine with regional elections, fiscal challenges, and difficult balancing acts for local central banks. See below for our key takeaways from a LatAm perspective.
Highlights
- U.S. trade policy uncertainty and regional elections will make 2026 difficult to navigate, but all in all, we are somewhat optimistic due to monetary easing in the region and healthy commodity prices. LatAm economic and market outcomes for 2026 (and possibly further out) hinge on the lead-up to, and results of, elections in the region, with Brazil’s October 2026 vote serving as the most important.
- We have a positive outlook for LatAm credit in 2026, driven by a convergence of favourable monetary and political tailwinds that should support spreads.
- We have a bearish U.S.-dollar outlook, expecting broad weakness against most of the major currencies through 2026 and into 2027. Our forecast is driven by an outlook for relative central bank policy that incorporates significantly lower rates from the Federal Reserve and few policy changes at other major central banks.
Contact your Scotiabank Relationship Manager to receive the full report.
